Savings Withdrawal Calculator | How Long Will My Money Last?
Find out exactly how long your savings will last at any withdrawal rate, investment return, and inflation rate. Model the 4% rule, add annual contributions during drawdown, compare three return scenarios side by side, and use the sustainable rate finder to calculate the maximum withdrawal that never depletes savings over 30 years.
QUICK PRESETS
= 4.00% withdrawal rate
Historical US equity average: 7–10%
Added before interest each year (part-time work, etc.)
What Is the Savings Withdrawal Calculator | How Long Will My Money Last??
The core question for anyone living on savings — whether in retirement, taking a sabbatical, or drawing from an emergency fund — is the same: at what rate can I withdraw from this portfolio without running out of money in N years? The answer depends on the return rate, inflation, and whether you want the balance to reach zero at exactly year N (depletion model) or maintain a balance indefinitely (endowment model). This calculator models both, plus the critically important inflation-adjusted withdrawal scenario.
- ›The 4% rule as a starting point. Research by Bengen (1994) and the Trinity Study found that a 4% initial withdrawal rate, inflation-adjusted annually, survived 95%+ of 30-year historical periods when invested in a 60/40 stock-bond portfolio. This is a historically derived heuristic, not a guarantee.
- ›Inflation is the silent portfolio killer. A $60,000 annual withdrawal that feels comfortable today requires $97,000 to maintain the same purchasing power in 20 years at 2.5% annual inflation. Without inflation adjustment, your standard of living quietly erodes every year.
- ›Sequence of returns risk. The order of returns matters, not just the average. Poor returns in early retirement years force larger portfolio sales to maintain the same withdrawal, permanently reducing the capital base. A flat average return overstates portfolio safety compared to real-world volatility.
- ›The sustainable rate is specific to your scenario. A 30-year horizon at 6% return with 2.5% inflation supports a very different withdrawal rate than a 40-year horizon at 5% return. This calculator finds the exact sustainable rate for your specific inputs.
Formula
Year-by-Year Balance
Balance(n+1) = (Balance(n) + Annual Top-up − Withdrawal(n)) × (1 + r/100)
r = annual return rate (%); withdrawal is taken before growth is applied
Inflation-Adjusted Withdrawal
Withdrawal(n) = Initial Withdrawal × (1 + inflation/100)^n
Preserves purchasing power — spending increases with the cost of living
Sustainable Withdrawal Rate (binary search)
Find max rate R such that Balance never reaches $0 over N years
Computed using 50 iterations of binary search for sub-cent precision
How to Use
- 1
Enter your starting portfolio balance and expected annual withdrawal.
- 2
Set the expected annual return rate and planning horizon in years.
- 3
Toggle inflation adjustment on and set your assumed annual inflation rate.
- 4
Optionally enter an annual top-up (part-time income, pension, etc.).
- 5
Click Calculate to see the balance curve, depletion year, and sustainable withdrawal rate.
- 6
Use the scenario chart to compare base, optimistic, and conservative return assumptions.
- 1Enter starting balance: The total portfolio value at the start of withdrawals — your retirement savings, investment account, or any savings pool.
- 2Set annual withdrawal amount: The amount you plan to withdraw each year. Use your expected annual spending minus any other income sources (pension, Social Security).
- 3Choose annual return rate: Expected average annual return. Use conservative assumptions: 5–6% for a balanced portfolio, 3–4% for conservative allocations. Use the presets as starting points.
- 4Enable inflation adjustment: Toggle on to increase the withdrawal amount each year by the inflation rate. Essential for retirement planning — preserves purchasing power over time.
- 5Set planning horizon: How many years do you need the portfolio to last? For retirement: life expectancy minus retirement age, plus a buffer. For sabbaticals or short-term goals: exact duration.
- 6Add annual top-up: If you will still receive some income (part-time work, rental income, dividends), enter the annual contribution. This extends portfolio life significantly.
Example Calculation
Example: $800,000 portfolio, retire at 62, 30-year horizon
Starting balance: $800,000 | Annual return: 6% | Inflation: 2.5%
Annual withdrawal: $40,000 (inflation-adjusted each year)
Year 1: ($800,000 − $40,000) × 1.06 = $805,600
Year 2: withdrawal = $40,000 × 1.025 = $41,000
Year 2: ($805,600 − $41,000) × 1.06 = $810,536
Year 30: withdrawal = $40,000 × (1.025)^29 = $79,100
Sustainable rate: 5.2% initial withdrawal → $41,600/yr starting
4% rule ($32,000/yr): balance grows; depletion never reached in 30 years
Understanding Savings Withdrawal | How Long Will My Money Last?
Why Inflation Adjustment Changes Everything
A fixed $50,000 annual withdrawal sounds straightforward — but in 25 years at 2.5% inflation, that $50,000 only buys what $28,000 buys today. Maintaining a $50,000 living standard requires withdrawing $90,000 by year 25. Without inflation adjustment, your portfolio appears more durable than it actually is, because the projections ignore that every dollar you withdraw buys progressively less. Enable inflation adjustment and use the realistic planning horizon — the picture changes dramatically.
Extending Portfolio Life: What Actually Works
- ›Reduce the withdrawal rate by 0.5–1%. The sustainable rate is highly sensitive to small reductions in withdrawal. Lowering from 4% to 3.5% can extend portfolio life by 10+ years at the same return assumption.
- ›Part-time income in early retirement years. Even $15,000–$20,000 per year in part-time income for the first 5–7 years dramatically reduces portfolio depletion during the highest-risk window. Sequence of returns risk is front-loaded — the early years matter most.
- ›Dynamic withdrawal strategy. Reduce spending in years where the portfolio declines by more than 10–15%. Accepting temporary spending cuts in bad markets can extend portfolio life by years compared to a rigid fixed-dollar withdrawal.
- ›Delay Social Security. Each year of delay past 62 increases Social Security benefits by 6–8% — a guaranteed, inflation-indexed return that reduces pressure on your investment portfolio. Delaying from 62 to 70 can increase benefits by 75–80%.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is the 4% rule still valid in today's low-yield environment?
Many planners now target 3–3.5% for new retirees given lower expected returns and longer life expectancies. The 4% rule was derived from US historical data — run your own scenario with realistic return assumptions.
Should I use pre-tax or post-tax portfolio value?
Model the account on its own terms. Traditional IRA/401k: withdrawals are taxed — reduce your effective annual withdrawal by your estimated tax rate. Roth: tax-free qualified withdrawals. Run each account type separately if you have a mix.
What return rate should I use?
A 60/40 portfolio: use 5–7% nominal. For inflation-adjusted projections, the real return (nominal minus inflation) is most intuitive — typically 3–5% for balanced portfolios. Conservative planners use 4–5% nominal.
What is the difference between depletion planning and endowment planning?
Depletion model: spend to zero at year N. Endowment model: maintain balance indefinitely (withdrawal ≤ real return). Most retirees plan for a modest remaining balance to buffer longevity and unexpected costs.
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